Carson City Community Development: Residential projects won't exceed build-out population

A report updating the growth management projections for Carson City has been released by the Carson City Community Development Department, concluding that build-out of residential master plan areas will not exceed the city's build-out population.

Growth within the Consolidated Municipality of Carson City is managed by the Growth Management Ordinance, originally implemented in the late 1970s as a way to address the city's ability to keep pace with growth while providing necessary water and sewer infrastructure, according to the report assembled by Carson City Community Development Director Lee Plemel.

For much of the Growth Management program’s recent history, the total number of building permits allocated in a given year has been generally based upon a maximum growth rate of three percent, the report said.

More than 750 permits were allocated in 2006 before entitlement numbers were lowered to less than 700 in 2013. Less than 650 permits were allocated in 2016 and again in 2017.

But the number was increased this year to 658, and an increase to 659 is proposed for 2019.

The total number of building permit allocations are not to be confused with the actual number of building permits issued. Allocations, or entitlements, are the total number of building permits the city is authorized to issue in a given year under the Growth Management Ordinance.

The actual number of issued building permits has been considerably less than the total allocations since about 1998 when a little less than 300 permits were issued by the city.

Numbers rose to almost 400 in 2002 before dropping below 300 again. Issued building permits fell below 100 in 2007 for the first time since 1982. Those numbers remained consistently below 100 issued permits each year until 2016 when permits reached nearly 200.

Issued permits leveled off in 2017 and so far in 2018 with around 100 in each of those years.

Median home sale prices for total units sold reached about $290,000 in 2017. This value is up significantly from a 14-year low of about $140,000 in 2012. There were just under 800 total home sales in 2017.

According to Community Development, around 390 vacant single-family lots currently exist within recorded subdivisions, while 1,257 unrecorded single-family lots have been approved by tentative map. Those include 1,376 single-family detached lots and 271 are single-family attached lots (i.e., townhomes).

There are also 987 approved multi-family apartment units, totaling 2,634 approved units currently in Carson City. A Growth Management allocation will be required for each of these units, as well as for other residential units constructed throughout the city.

These numbers do not represent all of the projects that will be developed within the next few years, the report said. An unknown number of other projects may be approved and added to the list of new applications received.

Other existing projects have taken or will take several years to fully develop and build out.

Silver Oak, in Northwest Carson City, now has about 750 units constructed over a span of about 24 years. Schulz Ranch, located in Southeast Carson City behind the Stewart Indian School complex, is currently building at a pace of 100 units per year.

Blackstone Ranch, on the Lompa Ranch property along North Saliman Road between East Fifth and East Robinson streets, is expected to take 10 years or more to develop and build out.

Most of the pending apartment projects each consist of multiple buildings, Plemel reported, which are typically phased in over time and the Growth Management allocations for each unit are also spread out over a period of time through construction phases.

Long-range planning for land use, water, sewer, and transportation in Carson City has been based on an estimated "build-out" population of 75-80,000 since the adoption of the 2006 Master Plan, the report said.

Carson City Assessor's data currently shows approximately 23,600 residential units within the Consolidated Municipality and a population of 55,438 taken from the 2017 Nevada State Demographer’s estimate.

Around 32,000 residential units would be required to support a build-out population of 75-80,000 assuming 2.5 persons per unit, according to 2010 U.S. Census data.

About another 8,400 residential units — or around one-third of the current residential unit count — remain to be constructed before the city's planned build-out population is reached.

Analysis of vacant and underdeveloped properties currently with a residential master plan designation has been conducted by the Carson City Planning Department, which concluded that build-out of these areas won't exceed the build-out population.

"This allows for additional residential development on non-residential properties, while staying within the projected build-out population," Plemel said in the report.