Carson City area weather: Frigid overnight temperatures ahead, another storm arrives late Monday
Drier conditions will prevail for the New Year's weekend, but temperatures around Carson City, western Nevada and the Sierra will be quite chilly, according to the National Weather Service. Meanwhile, another winter storm with mountain snow and widespread strong gusty winds is expected to arrive beginning late Monday.
The coldest air in nearly 5 years is set to arrive for the end of the week into the New Year's weekend, with frigid temperatures most likely Saturday and Sunday mornings. Forecast lows are in the single digits for much of western Nevada and well below zero in Sierra communities. On the upside, the days will be mostly sunny Friday through Sunday.
Vulnerable and homeless populations could be significantly impacted. People traveling to the Sierra ski areas should prepare for very cold wind chills. New Year's Eve at this point looks dry but quite chilly for outdoor activities, with wind chills ranging from near zero to 15 degrees above zero by midnight.
Go here or read below a detailed weather forecast discussion for the rest of the week, the weekend and beyond.
Highlights for the remainder of 2021:
SIERRA TRAVEL: Cold temperatures and lingering snow showers will likely keep chain controls in effect for much of the higher terrain for awhile. Busy holiday travel will lead to long travel delays. The best sources for the latest road conditions are via NDOT, call 511 or go to nvroads.com and Caltrans (1-800-427-ROAD or go to roads.dot.ca.gov.
WESTERN NV TRAVEL: Several areas of concern for western NV through this morning: I-80 east of Reno through Lovelock to Winnemucca, the I-580/US-395 corridor from South Reno to Carson city, and Geiger Grade into Virginia City. Plan on areas of icy roads, especially for any untreated paved areas, neighborhood routes or side streets. (1) Check the roads before you go. (2) Take it extra slow on ice and snow.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: While conditions will be a bit drier, there are still low chances for precipitation. Residual moisture with subtle forcing or upslope flow will maintain chances of light snow showers in some areas: (1) Near the Sierra crest west of Tahoe, northward to central Plumas County. (2) Areas near the Oregon border, including Surprise Valley. (3) East of US-95 in west central NV. We can`t rule out an inch or two of total snow from today through Friday, while other areas may see some flurries with little accumulation. West breezes increase this afternoon-evening (gusts generally 30-35 mph) ahead of a back door cold front passage overnight into Friday morning. Ridge gusts 60-70 mph and gusty winds to 40+ mph in the Sierra backcountry will make it feel quite brisk with wind chills -10F to 10F.
New Years Eve Chill: If your plans involve being outdoors to ring in the New Year, bundle up because it will be quite cold! Midnight temperatures will be in the teens to near 20 degrees. Northwest winds will enhance the freeze factor with wind chills between 0-15 degrees. Plan on some slick/icy conditions on paved surfaces as well.
For 2022 Onward:
OVERVIEW: Relatively quiet weekend forecast with light winds and below average temperatures will make for some chilly mornings. Late Monday into Wednesday, the next storm arrives with another round of mountain snowfall, lower valley rain/snow showers, and some notable wind signals.
THIS WEEKEND: Ridge of high pressure builds across the west with subsidence and light winds helping to produce stronger surface inversions, trapping the cold air, haze, and increasing the potential for freezing fog and low stratus decks.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY STORM: By late Monday, the next winter storm arrives in the region with a notable increase in winds Monday and Tuesday along with the potential for more Sierra snow and lower valley rain and snow. Latest ensemble cluster analysis trend shows a much shallower trough passage, which would limit impacts (snow/rain) into the Sierra and western NV. There is also greater variability and spread with respect to QPF/snow amounts for the Sierra and western NV in the ensemble guidance.
WINDS: Wind signals continue to pop up in the ensemble guidance, Tuesday-Wednesday in particular. ECMWF EFI is highlighting the potential for strong wind gust potential centered on Tuesday. Even with the uncertainty of the trough depth/track, the strong jet associated with this system bears careful monitoring with the potential for the following impacts due to damaging wind speeds: more tree falls, aviation delays/cancellations due to wind shear and/or turbulence, road restrictions for high profile vehicles, and areas of blowing snow.
SNOW: Snow amounts will be a big question mark for some areas due to the variability in track with this storm. Ensemble guidance still showing big spreads in snow/QPF amounts for next week with the variance in track of this storm. The National Blended Model (NBM) backed off quite a bit this morning on the amount of precipitation, and snowfall favors areas from the Tahoe Basin northward with a strong gradient to much less snowfall down in the Eastern Sierra of Mono County.
Scenario 1 (deeper track): High probability for accumulating snow for the entire Sierra (esp above 7000 feet). Wind issue for western NV with some rain/snow in play as well.
Scenario 2 (shallower track, stays towards Pac NW): High probability Sierra snow for areas north of Highway 50 and elevations above 7000 feet. Rain more likely for areas below 5000 feet, with a bigger concern for damaging wind potential.
Takeaway for storm next week: Plan on significant travel impacts in the Sierra to return or persist. Hopefully the break (today - Sunday) in the more significant weather will allow for efficient storm recovery efforts ahead of this next stormy period.
Check back for updates.