Carson City area weather: Gusty winds, light snow and cold tonight into Thursday

An inside slider-type system will bring snow showers, gusty northerly winds, and a brief period of colder temperatures to Western Nevada and Sierra late Wednesday through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Although snowfall totals are expected to be on the lighter side, these types of systems are notorious for relatively low predictability, especially when it comes to snow amounts, forecasters said.

Western Nevada and the Sierra will have a chance of receiving accumulating snowfall by Wednesday evening, spreading south along the eastern Sierra into Thursday. Motorists should be prepared for possible winter driving conditions, particularly during the Thursday morning commute, NWS forecasters said.

Gusty winds will begin Wednesday afternoon. Northerly wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph will be possible for valleys (exception below), with gusts over exposed ridges along the Sierra crest increasing to up to 100 mph. Hazardous boating conditions, aviation and ski impacts, and elevated concern for high-profile vehicles are possible across the region.

Breezy winds on Thursday combined with afternoon highs in the 30s to lower 40s in valleys will result in a chilly day. Wind chills in the high Sierra are likely to be between 0 and -25 degrees with frostbite a concern.

High pressure moves in Friday and over the weekend for quiet and much warmer conditions. There is potential for a system with mountain snow and valley rain early next week, NWS forecasters said.

Below and here is the latest forecast discussion from the National Weather Service.

A system over southern British Columbia will drop into extreme eastern California and Nevada late tonight into Thursday in an "inside slider" fashion. This will push a sharp cold front through the region. While the business end of the slider will more strongly affect central and eastern Nevada, low to moderate impacts from wind and lower-end impacts from light snow remain on the table for western Nevada and portions of the eastern Sierra.

SNOW:
Most guidance continues to produce a narrow band of snow along the western periphery of the incoming front late Wednesday evening into pre-dawn Thursday morning. Most of this is south of Highway 50 and west of Highway 95 in western Nevada into the eastern Sierra, where the front gets some upslope help.

Many areas including farther north near Reno and Fallon could see a few snow showers with a medium shot at a dusting of snow; however, with the front jamming south in a hurry, when you raise the threshold to 1" the best probabilities (40-70%) are focused well south of Highway 50 in southern Alpine County, the northern half of Mono County, and across Mineral and southern Lyon counties, with a 20-40% chance of 2". With temperatures
plummeting well below freezing, even just a light snowfall will yield hazardous driving conditions Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

WIND:
Still looks somewhat breezy this afternoon ahead of the front but nothing too eyebrow-raising. Widespread gusts on the order of 30-40 MPH could result in travel impacts for wind prone roads and some choppy water on area lakes especially Pyramid which tends to funnel those W/NW winds. Breezes will stay up Wednesday night as the front rolls through, switching to more of a N/NE direction through Thursday.

N/NE winds tend to favor our eastern Sierra valleys such as around Benton and Bishop for stronger winds as colder, denser post-frontal air spills downhill into the Owens Valley. The NBM is showing a 50-70% chance for gusts over 55 mph Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Sierra crest will really start to howl Thursday as winds turn more NE on the backside of the upper trough with 500 mb winds up to around 70 knots. Seeing gusts near 100 MPH with wind chills -10 to -25F for exposed ridges along the crest is likely Thursday. Wind chills of -20 can bring frostbite in 30 minutes. Rough water on Lake Tahoe is also likely Thursday as easterly winds get cranking. A lake wind advisory has been issued there. For Pyramid Lake, rough lake waters are also expected; however, the strong wind period is expected mainly Wednesday night when the lake is closed to boaters.

Friday into Next Week
High pressure ridge strengthens over the West with a warming and drying trend on tap. Temperatures will be quite mild with lower valleys in the mid to upper 50s and Sierra valleys hitting the upper 40s to mid 50s.

For the weekend, the weather pattern is attempting to make a shift. Ensemble clusters show the ridge flattening which will crack open the storm door to the West Coast. A weak system will push through the Pacific NW on Saturday afternoon allowing for southwest to west winds to kick up across the Sierra and western Nevada, particularly along and north of Highway 50.

Precipitation chances (15-30%) with this system will edge into far northern CA and NV for late Saturday into Sunday, with the best chances from Tahoe northward. Winds will be the larger feature with this system, with gusts 30-40 mph in the lower valleys. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles show potential for another round of precipitation on Tuesday as well. The system for Tuesday appears wetter in nature with the potential for low elevation rain and high elevation snow.

The next potential for some "fun" weather will be early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis has been consistent with the ridge flattening and more progressive flow into the West, but it may not be flat enough to pull in the Pacific moisture queuing up. The variability in the EC/GFS ensemble members make it difficult to say exactly what early next week will look like but we can glean some potential weather. IVT probs for the EC/GFS are both targeting a short period of time where Pacific moisture may intersect the Sierra and western Nevada next week which would result in a period of gusty winds and precipitation. There is a scenario where the bulk of that subtropical moisture stays north of the region and we don't get much at all.