Carson City weather update: Snowy Christmas likely for valleys, travel impacts across region
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Tue, 12/21/2021 - 5:50pm
It has been a few years since snow has fallen on Christmas Day around the Carson City region, but this year may prove to be different as storm systems are lined up through Saturday and beyond bringing rain and snow to the valley floors and heavy snow to the Sierra, according to the National Weather Service.
Starting late Tuesday night and lasting through the holiday weekend, a series of systems will bring winter weather to the Sierra, northeast California, and western Nevada. There may be a period with lighter snowfall for the Sierra on Christmas Eve before heavy snowfall returns on Christmas Day, and this includes the valley floors, NWS forecasters say. However, travel is likely to remain very slow with snow-covered roads and chain requirements quite possible.
Motorists should be prepared for major travel disruptions and delays in the Sierra by Wednesday into Thursday as the snow potential increases in western Nevada by late week with snow expected throughout western Nevada.
Check the latest road conditions with Caltrans and NDOT. For Carson City area updates see CarsonWeather.com. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 511 for Nevada and 1-800-427-7623 for California. Monitor the latest weather forecast at weather.gov/reno and check road conditions routinely.
For the Lake Tahoe area, a winter weather advisory is in place from 2 a.m. Wednesday to 4 a.m. Thursday. A Winter Storm Warning goes into effect Thursday morning at 4 a.m. and will last through 4 p.m. Sunday heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet is expected, except 4 to 8 feet above 7,000 feet. Wind gusts to 40 mph, with ridge wind gusts exceeding 100 mph, are likely.
For Western Nevada, including the greater Reno, area, Virginia City, Carson City, Carson Valley and Lyon County, Widespread spillover precipitation is possible Thursday and Thursday night.
However, snow levels are not forecast to drop to valley floors until Friday or Friday night so any impacts look limited to higher foothills above 5,500 to 6,000 feet. Therefore, the weekend offers the best chance for accumulating snow in the lower valleys as a colder system affects the region. As of Tuesday, the weather service says snow is likely on Christmas Day around the Carson City region and western Nevada valleys.
Forecasters advise travel in the Sierra could be very difficult to impossible, especially by Wednesday night and Thursday. Strong winds could cause areas of tree damage. Snow may mix with rain at times below 6,500 feet Wednesday and Wednesday night. There may be a break in heavier snow late Thursday night and Friday.
Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination. Now is the time to prepare an emergency kit for your home and car. If traveling consider alternate plans, remember to carry tire chains, extra food, water and clothing. Once the major storm arrives later Wednesday, travel may be difficult or impossible for an extended period of time.
Go here or read below the latest weather discussion from the National Weather Service regarding the arriving storms.
For this first system tonight through Wednesday night, rising snow levels may only bring light snow to the lower elevations of NE California and the Tahoe Basin with just a few inches or less of accumulation with lower level accumulations more likely tonight during the precipitation onset. Above about 7000` we should still see around foot or so of new snow. Snow levels are currently expected to peak Wednesday afternoon, descending with a slow lowering process Wednesday night.
For Western Nevada, expect breezy winds (Wednesday) with rain showers becoming increasingly likely Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the storm moves inland.
Thursday night through the first week of 2022
Colder air arrival has been delayed 18-24 hours with snow levels not near lower valley floors until Friday or Friday night. Unsettled conditions will impact much of the West through the holiday weekend. Check your flight status routinely and keep an eye on road conditions by checking with Caltrans and NDOT.
Periods of most concern in long term, Thursday night (mainly Sierra), Christmas or Christmas Night (Sat-Sat night), then possibly Monday. Potential for heavier snowfall may produce the most impactful and hazardous travel conditions.
Sierra and Northeast California Passes
Major travel impacts with very long travel times and possibly periodic road closures. While snowfall rates may lessen Friday, snow-covered roads will likely continue to create travel issues. Heavier snow returns over the weekend.
Western Nevada Valleys and Foothills
Largest shift in forecast thinking. Rain or a rain/snow mix (above 5,500 to 6,500 feet) with minimal impact through Thursday. Snow levels drop on Friday or Friday night (Christmas Eve) with increasing potential for travel disruption due to snow for the Christmas weekend.
Thursday Night through Friday Night
With a major model shift in the past day, warmer southwest flow aloft looks to dominate for up to another whole day, with enough colder air finally filtering in Friday and Friday night to drive snow levels to lower valley floors. Snow level still are expected to remain low enough to affect all Sierra and northeast California passes; however, it could delay meaningful snow accumulations between 5,500 to 6,500 feet in the Sierra until later Thursday evening.
The Sierra and mountain communities look to transition to light to occasionally moderate snow showers on Christmas Eve as upper forcing temporarily wanes. However, western Nevada valleys may have to be patient for notable snowfall accumulations until the weekend with the next, colder disturbance.
Christmas Weekend
Another round of snow will be possible for the weekend as a colder shortwave drops into California and Nevada. That wave is aligned very well in simulations, giving confidence in another round of snow in the Sierra on Christmas along with increased chances for western NV valleys. The Sierra could pick up another 1-3 feet of snowfall. For western Nevada it's too early to comment on exact amounts (very sensitive to location of forcing for sustained snow) but we can say that travel disruptions are becoming increasingly likely even "down here."
Next Week Into First Week of 2022
Another wave with snowfall at all elevations is possible around next Monday as cold systems continue to drop down from the north. Of particular note will be a moderate chance for below to well below average temperatures into 2022 with the cold continental flow filtering in and being reinforced periodically behind disturbances. In areas with more than a couple inches of snowfall on the ground, very cold lows (below zero if there are clear skies and calm conditions) with highs below freezing will be possible down to the lower valleys.
