Carson City area weather: Continued hot today with drift smoke possible from Yosemite fire
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Tue, 07/12/2022 - 10:48am
Drift smoke is possible Tuesday around Western Nevada, the Carson City region and Lake Tahoe due to the Washburn Fire in Yosemite. Smoke from the fire is expected into the region later today, according to the National Weather Service.
The potential density of smoke remains uncertain, however pockets of reduced air quality are possible. For the latest air quality conditions and recommendations go to fire.airnow.gov.
As of late Tuesday morning, high clouds and a haze was beginning to move into the region as seen via alertwildfire.org.
Meanwhile, expect another hot day today around Carson City, Carson Valley and Dayton areas, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100. While no records are anticipated, the weather service advises people to consider reducing, canceling or rescheduling strenuous activities to a cooler time of the day.
Higher risk people, such as infants, the elderly, or sick individuals should remain in the coolest available place. Never leave children or animals in a vehicle for any amount of time.
The weather service also noted a 10 to 20 percent chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and continuing overnight into early Wednesday morning.
The biggest concerns with any storms that develop will be for gusty and erratic outflow winds and dry lightning.
Here and below is the latest forecast fire weather discussion from the National Weather Service in Reno.
FIRE WEATHER
The greatest concern remains thunderstorm potential this afternoon and overnight tonight. This remains a lower confidence forecast, especially for the nocturnal storms.
This afternoon, anticipate isolated thunderstorm development in the Eastern Sierra, spreading north northeast into Douglas, Lyon, and western Mineral counties. As the afternoon zephyr kicks in, it may act as a convergent boundary for additional storms to continue to fire north and east, but again, isolated (10-20%) coverage.
Forecast model soundings are still showing the mid-level/elevated instability and moisture response in the RH fields overnight. The wave lifting through the region, helping to initialize storms is weak and has varied in the exact position — from the Sierra Front in western Nevada to eastern Nevada. For now, will keep the slight chance for thunderstorms in the forecast overnight, mainly near and east of the US-395 corridor with better chances north of
US-50.
Any storms that form this afternoon or overnight will be high-based and on the drier side with gusty and erratic outflow winds, based on inverted-V soundings, and fast moving. We are not planning a watch/warning at this time for dry lightning mainly due to the isolated nature of the storms and lower confidence.
The signals we are seeing usually lead to cloud development with virga or light showers and very few lighting strikes as opposed to a widespread dry lightning event. Looking at the flash density and lightning flash rate progs, per EC guidance, there is little response overnight, which also supports this idea. We'll continue to keep an eye on things and update as needed today if guidance changes.
If there any any new fire starts, a slightly enhanced zephyr wind Wednesday and Thursday (gusts 20-35 mph each afternoon), and dry air mass, would exacerbate conditions.
Forecasters say it looks like the region will have a break from storms Wednesday into Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances, 10 to 20 percent, Friday and into the weekend. Check back for updates.
