Carson City area weather: Cooler this week with chance of valley rain, Sierra snow showers
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Sun, 04/30/2023 - 10:36am
Cooler temperatures with chances of valley rain and mountain snow showers return this week for the Carson City region, western Nevada and Sierra, according to the National Weather Service.
The warm spell will come to an end Sunday as temperatures begin to cool with increasing clouds and wind ahead of a low pressure system moving toward the west coast.
Area snowmelt will only be slightly abated as cold and fast flows continue across area creeks, stream, and rivers. This slow moving low pressure system will also bring periods of mountain snow and valley rain showers the upcoming week. Meanwhile, a Flood Watch for the region continues until 9 a.m. Monday.
The following is the latest forecast weather discussion from the National Weather Service in Reno. The discussion is updated mornings and afternoons daily.
The focus shifts to the upper disturbance that is projected to bring periods of increased chances for valley showers and upper elevation snow to the Sierra and western Nevada. Current model guidance continues to show good general agreement as to the trajectory of the close low center as it settles over the California central coast for a protracted period through the week.
What is uncertain is the timing and strength of short waves rotating across California and Nevada during the extended stay of the low over the region. What model guidance does elude to is the projection of increased energy and moisture first across northeast California, and the Sierra crest around the Lake Tahoe Basin, that extends south into the eastern Sierra Monday through Wednesday with a repeat performance through the later half of next week.
To add to the mix is the chance (10-25%) for isolated thunderstorms focused mostly over the Basin and Range on Monday into Tuesday. These same chances will shift more northwest into the Sierra Front and northeast California thereafter.
Projected liquid precipitation amounts through mid-week will range between 0.5 to 1.0 over the Sierra crest with lighter totals of a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch across much of western Nevada. Because of the increased instability and convective nature of shower activity, precipitation projections will be mostly nonuniform across the region.
A moderate chance (40-50%) for several inches or more of higher elevation snow could fall across the Sierra from around the Lake Tahoe Basin south along the eastern Sierra before the low pressure system finally exits later next week. Blended guidance also shows snow levels ranging between 5,500 to 6,000 feet overnight Monday into Wednesday morning.
This means there is the potential for a couple inches of slushy wet snow around the Lake Tahoe Basin Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning.
What will be a notable notion is the cooler temperatures that will hover to near or slightly below normal through the week as upper low continues to linger over central California.
Check back for updates.
