Could we finally see our first snow soon? Outlook for this winter’s potential conditions
Submitted by Kelsey Penrose on Tue, 11/12/2024 - 2:05pm
Western Nevada is currently experiencing an above-average warm fall, as many are aware given the high temperatures we saw through September and October.
It wasn’t the warmest October though, at least; that distinction goes to 2015. However, according to the team at the National Weather Service, Reno station, it was the 8th warmest October, with an average temperature of 58.1 degrees.
Those who may have been hoping for the first valley snow of the year Monday were out of luck barring a not-quite-Christmas miracle. With the system having moved through the area, there was a 10% chance of seeing any snow.
However, there is a slightly increased chance we could see some snow at the end of the week, but chances are still slim.
According to Tim Bardsley, senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service, there is unfortunately “not a lot of skill on long range forecasts in our area, as seasonal weather forecasting in Northern Nevada is extremely difficult and historically not very skillful.”
While large climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can provide some seasonal forecasting for other parts of the country, it provides very little information for our region.
“That said, this is expected to be a weak La Niña or neutral year, with slightly cooler than usual sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific,” Bardsley said.
Carson City specifically sits in an area that is typically unaffected by La Niña conditions, and the NOAA seasonal forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center are calling for equal chances of a wet, dry, or normal winter.
“In other words, anything is possible for our winter, and we have indeed seen incredibly wet and dry La Niña winters in our area,” Bardsley said. “The state of the science is not there yet, and seasonal predictability is limited in our area.”
Wet or dry episodes will depend on the location and strength of high pressures in the northern Pacific Ocean, which will either push moisture up and around our area, or open the storm door to Pacific moisture sources.
“Winters here are defined by individual storms, and the presence or absence of just a few major storms can be the difference between a normal to above normal winter and the return of drought conditions,” Bardsley said. “These storms and more active weather patterns are often apparent one to two weeks out.”
While area streamflows are currently below normal, he went on, a series of wet and warm storms could generate flooding concerns even in an otherwise dry winter, and our area has seen a disproportionate number of floods in weak La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions, but additional research is needed to understand these observations.
“We have also noted that in years that have rapidly transitioned from El Niño to La Niña (like last winter to this winter), have been wet more often than dry, but again more research is needed to understand this relationship. Best to be prepared for any outcome this winter, and don’t rule out the potential for flooding.”
Keep up to date with all your weather information with NWS Reno at https://www.weather.gov/rev/.
