Carson City area weather: Hazy, highs in the low 90s, thunderstorms possible Wednesday
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Sun, 09/05/2021 - 10:59am
Heading into Labor Day, temperatures around the Carson City region and lower valleys will be in the low-90s, with the hot weather expected to last through Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.
Smoke impacts will vary, with a persistent haze for western Nevada over the next few days, NWS forecasters say. The smoke outlook continues to show periods of unhealthy to very unhealthy air quality nearby the Dixie and Caldor fires, as well as portions of the Tahoe Basin and Reno, Carson City Quad county areas.
Afternoon and evening breezes, improved smoke dispersion and chances for thunderstorms return by the middle of the week, NWS forecasters say.
The weather service advises that by midweek there may be some changes, with thunderstorm possible.
The following below is the forecast discussion as of Sunday morning.
Latest simulations are still highlighting the potential for precipitable water values to surge upwards this week with ensemble meteograms showing values in the 0.6"-0.9" range. The general trend per ensemble data (NBM, ECMWF, and GFS) all show a slight upward trend from Wednesday into Saturday. Some simulations continue to show a weak shortwave trough and front brushing to the north of CA/NV Wednesday into Thursday, with the main offshore trough potentially moving inland next weekend.
The ongoing precipitation and thunderstorm forecast will rely heavily on these main features for the end of the week. That being said, no significant changes were made to the potential for precipitation and thunderstorms for later this week.
. Low chances (less than 10%) for the Sierra Wednesday afternoon.
. Slight chances (20-30%) south of I-80 Thursday.
. Slight chances (20-30%) spreading northward to include some areas
north of I-80 Friday.
Winds This Week:
As high pressure shifts eastward, typical afternoon/evening breezes return on Tuesday through much of the week. There are some signals for enhanced afternoon breezes for Tuesday into Thursday as a shortwave brushes by to the north and also for a cold front passage possibly Thursday night into Friday. The shortwaves and cold fronts passing through the main trough will drive the changes from day-to- day. For now, it is hard to pin down which days will be a bigger concern for wind issues, especially as it relates to fire weather impacts.
Uncertainty Remains for Next Weekend:
Ensemble clusters are a bit mixed in the overall pattern for next weekend. There are signals for a trough or a flatter ridge anchoring itself across the West. The current forecast is still hitting on cooler temperatures for next weekend with highs in western NV in the upper 70s to around 80, and for most Sierra and northeast CA communities in the low-to-mid 70s. While we don't want to rule out the potential for precipitation, there still isn`t a sizable signal for widespread wetting rains. The pattern is certainly in flux this week, especially with multiple shortwave troughs bothering the high pressure ridge and the potential for incoming monsoonal moisture via disturbances that may form south of the Gulf of California.
