Hot weather returns to Carson City region, temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Tue, 06/01/2021 - 10:57am
Hot weather returns to western Nevada this week with valley temperatures Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 90s for the Carson City region, with some areas possibly reaching near 100, according to the National Weather Service.
With nearly full sunshine and light winds, heat health impacts are possible for those sensitive to heat or those outdoors for extended periods of time. NWS, in a special weather statement, advises people to make sure to hydrate, take frequent breaks in air conditioned areas, use sun protection, and never leave children or animals in vehicles.
In the Sierra, temperatures are expected to be in the 80s. Highs across northeastern California will be in the 90s.
With those hotter temperatures, a good portion of the last remaining snowpack may melt helping increase flows in mountain creeks and streams. While flows are expected to still be quite low for this time of year, the water will be fairly cold and can catch people off-guard. Lake water temperatures are dangerously cold and thermal shock will be a threat to those seeking a quick cool-off by jumping into lake waters. Personal flotation devices are recommended.
Isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday: With the increasing heat some isolated thunderstorms are possible. Wednesday afternoon there is a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms in the Eastern Sierra and in northern Lassen County/northwestern Nevada.
For Thursday afternoon, a 15-20 percent chance of thunderstorms from the Eastern Sierra out into Mineral County, with a 5-10 percent chance of thunderstorms in western and northwestern Nevada.
Westerly winds make a return on Thursday afternoon through Sunday with gusts 25-30 mph.
The following forecast discussion is from the National Weather Service in Reno.
Afternoon high temperatures will soar into the 90s starting today for lower valleys with a few spots in western NV near 100 Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, for Sierra valleys 80s are on tap with the coolest spots near Lake Tahoe (around 80) as lake temperatures in the upper 50s bring some modest natural air conditioning courtesy of a daily lake breeze.
A few records will be threatened by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be on the milder side although clearing skies nightly will allow for adequate nocturnal cooling, at least through Thursday AM. There is some chance that lows will be restricted Thursday night (say, 5 degrees warmer than currently forecast) in west-central NV if debris clouds from daytime convection persists there.
As far as thunderstorm chances, they remain generally unchanged for Wednesday with isolated storms expected in the eastern Sierra and across extreme northeast CA and northwest NV. There remains a low (10%) chance for a storm eeking into extreme western NV near the Carson Range late in the day Wednesday as heat and weak low level convergence combine to encourage convective development; however, it could also wind up just being a few skinny buildups if instability remains too weak to overcome dry air entrainment.
As far as the nature of Wednesday`s storms, light steering flow aloft means ordinary/pulse storms. The main concerns will be cloud-to-ground lightning, rapid cooling with heavy rain, and strong outflow winds to 50 mph due to the dry boundary layer.
Thursday, thunderstorm chances were expanded quite a bit across western Nevada as hot temperatures and stronger zephyr convergence increase the threat of thunderstorms, especially as an upper trough is expected to be slower to approach the West Coast. The slower trough means stabilizing southwest flow aloft is not expected for Thursday, at least south of the Lassen-northern Washoe convergence zone. Stronger convergence and some increased flow aloft could allow for a tad beefier, longer lived storms than Wednesday although flow aloft does not look sufficient to necessarily bring more organized convection.
In the longer term, high pressure slowly shifts eastward on Friday but temperatures will only cool modestly for the end of the week. More noticeable cooling and breezy conditions are forecast for the weekend into early next week.
For Friday, a cutoff low drops down the Central California coast as the ridge axis moves over the eastern Great Basin. Sufficient instability, surface heating, and moisture associated with the cutoff low will allow for thunderstorms to develop again on Friday afternoon, especially for areas in southern Mono and Mineral counties.
Cool and breezy this weekend: Ensemble cluster analysis continues to favor a trough across the Pacific Northwest as upstream ridging establishes across the central Pacific. This pattern holds its position through much of next week and will promote multiple breezy days across the Sierra and western Nevada. The windiest days may vary as the forecast evolves through the coming week but for now simulations are targeting Sunday-Monday to be the windiest days with the potential for widespread gusts 35 to 45 mph. Troughing across the West will drop those afternoon highs back down to more typical of June values.
Check back for updates.
