Carson City area weather: Sunny and warm with chance of thunderstorms over Memorial holiday weekend

With the Memorial Day holiday weekend ahead, Carson City and Lake Tahoe areas will see mostly sunny skies, breezy conditions and seasonal temperatures with a few showers and thunderstorms possible, according to the National Weather Service.

For the Carson City, Carson Valley and Dayton areas, sunny skies will continue through Thursday and Friday, with partly sunny skies Saturday and mostly sunny skies Sunday and Monday.

Highs temperatures will be near 80 on Thursday, the low 80s Friday and Saturday, mid-80s on Sunday and the upper 80s on Monday.

For the Lake Tahoe Basin, high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend, with a high around 75 on Monday.

After Monday the region is in for significantly warming weather, with some valley areas possibly reaching the 90s.

The following is the latest weather discussion as of Wednesday afternoon by National Weather Service forecasters.

Temperatures will remain seasonable the remainder of the work week and into the start of the holiday weekend. A weak trough moves across the west over the weekend, bringing increasing instability to the region. This will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms, particularly Saturday afternoon.

While coverage will likely be more isolated than anything, we know a lot of people probably have outdoor plans this weekend. If this includes you — be sure to have a "plan B" so you can get to safety if on a lake or mountain. Storms bring the potential for rapid temperature drops in rain, small hail, deadly lightning, and strong/erratic wind gusts.

The trough exits quicker in the latest simulations due to a strong ridge building into the west coast. Model soundings are showing the mid-levels of the atmosphere stabilizing with rapid warming aloft.

So, chances for thunderstorms are lessening for Sunday and Monday, but with the intense heat, it is possible a random storm could still pop — about a 10% chance — particularly along the higher terrain of the Sierra.

Speaking of heat, we are off to the races so to speak with a rapid warming trend starting Sunday. Lower valleys almost certainly will see some 90 degree readings by Monday and Tuesday, with the 90th percentile of the NBM hinting at chances for some triple digits Tuesday and Wednesday.

If this were to occur, it would be the earliest occurrence of 100 degrees at KRNO on record (current record is June 7, 2013). Keep in mind — this is the high end of the possibilities and not the official forecast. With the upcoming heat, be sure to stay hydrated, never leave kids or pets in the car, and take breaks from the heat if you can. The good news is we`ll cool well at night, but it will still be above seasonal norms.

Fire Weather
Lighter winds will continue through the overnight period into Thursday morning. A weak embedded short wave trough sagging south over northern CA/NV will bring breezy winds increase once again on Thursday with gusts ranging up to 25-35 mph in some areas especially across eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada. The increasingly drier air mass lowering RH values into the high single digits to mid-teens, coupled with the increasing winds will make for enhanced fire weather conditions across some parts of western Nevada Thursday afternoon and evening. With fuels generally not yet ready for area fire-starts due to the recent rains, critical fire weather criteria is not expected to be exceeded on a widespread scale going into the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Extra vigilance is advised through the holiday weekend as there is a chance of isolated thunderstorms firing up during the afternoon hours. This will add to the already enhanced fire weather conditions across the region since little precipitation is expected with these storms.

See CarsonWeather.com for the latest weather conditions for the Carson City, Lake Tahoe region.