The Struggle for Power: The ability to influence
Submitted by Carson Now Reader on Tue, 01/16/2018 - 9:48am
In the United States, some states have the provision of voter registration as unaffiliated. Other states have that classification as independent. Nearly a dozen states do not have registration by party. (That voter is just required to call for a partisan ballot on primary day.
Yes, on one primary election year the call would be one of the two major parties; and, then on a following primary election year, the voter could call for a primary ballot of the other major party.) Of course, Nevada's unaffiliated or independent voter is registered as non-partisan. Voter registration by each state, respectively - is an ultimate example of American federalism.
My 2018 general election thesis: The unaffiliated, independent, non-partisan voters will play the most historic role in determining the outcome of this '18 off-year election. Locally, meaning state-wide, the age cohorts driving non-partisan registration in Nevada, as well in many states, are the Millennials and Generation Xers. Presently, nearly three-fourths (and growing) of the non-partisans in the Silver State are 18 -53. The latter half of the Baby Boomers' cohort and especially the Silent Generation cohort (72+) - are the uber-partisans of politics.
Because of the historical trend - the conventional wisdom about off-year elections - is too often - the party in power loses.
Perhaps a more informative alternative is to become aware of three quantified indicators measuring the views of the unaffiliated, independent, non-partisan voters about: 1) the direction of the country; 1) the president's job performance; 3) the generic congressional election inquiry.
Presently, barely 30% of the unaffiliated, independent, non-partisan voters, nationally, view the country as heading in the right direction. Presently, just over one-fifth give President Trump a positive job performance rating. The response to the generic congressional question has ascended from an early four point plus for the party out of power to a high of 18%
If these numbers exist in mid-September the party out of power will have a very high probability of reclaiming the conventional wisdom.
Note however: numbers can and do change. So, follow them.
The party in power is and will be, especially this fall, emphasizing economic determinism, i.e., the unaffiliated, independent, non-partisan voter is driven primarily by money - thus - focus on "tax cut."
The ultimate question about the party out of power? Will it learn the non-economic views of the unaffiliated, independent, non partisan voters? If so, what are their concerns? How should they be addressed?
Our '18 general election will be a struggle for power (read: the ability to influence) the unaffiliated, independent, non-partisan voters by the party in power vs the party out of power.
— Don Carlson, a Western Nevada College sociology professor emeritus, a retired forty years public opinion researcher dba, has resided in Carson City for over four decades.
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