Carson City area weather: Windy with valley rain, snow in the Sierra
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Tue, 03/26/2024 - 4:25pm
Another early spring storm system will move into the Carson City area and surrounding counties Wednesday bringing gusty winds, valley rain and mountain snow to the region, according to the National Weather Service.
The arriving storm has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the greater Lake Tahoe area and Winter Storm Warning for the west slope of the Sierra.
The first of two impactful weather systems arrives in the area Wednesday afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Gusty to strong winds across the region as well as rain in the valleys and snow in mountains are all expected with this initial system going through Thursday morning, forecasters said in the National Weather Service forecast discussion.
Following a brief break in the remainder of Thursday, a second impactful system is in the forecast that will cause more chances for mountain snow and valley rain starting on Friday and going through Easter weekend, forecasters said. Those with outdoor holiday plans are encouraged to watch for the latest forecast information. For road and travel information, call 511 or go to NVroads.com.
For the Carson City, Carson Valley and Dayton areas, the latest NWS forecast as of Tuesday shows showers are likely Wednesday night, mainly between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. with snow levels around 6,300 feet. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
By Thursday, there's a chance of rain and snow showers before 8 a.m., then a chance of snow showers between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. then turning mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is around 30 percent.
On Friday there's a chance of snow showers before 2 p.m., then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Then Friday night there's a chance of rain showers before 8 p.m., then rain and snow showers likely. Snow level is around 5,400 feet. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
For Saturday, rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 2 p.m. Snow level 4,900 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Saturday night will bring a chance of rain showers before 8 p.m., then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8 p.m. and 11 p.m, then a chance of snow showers after 11 p.m. Snow level 5,200 feet lowering to 4800 feet after midnight.
What forecasters are saying
According to Tuesday's forecast discussion highlighting the greater Lake Tahoe area and Sierra, weather models show that on Wednesday afternoon there's an 80-90 percent probability of greater than 6 inches of snowfall within 24 hours for the Sierra ridge tops in the far western portions of the advisory area along with a 10-30 percent chance for greater than 12 inches of snowfall in the same location.
Higher elevation portions of western Mono County and the Tahoe Basin not included in the previously mentioned area look to have around a 50 to 60 percent probability for 4 inches of snowfall or greater in 24 hours, forecasters not. The precipitation type for lower elevation looks to be mostly rain though some light snow may mix in overnight. Little to no snowfall accumulation is expected for lower elevation areas within the advisory areaat this time.
As for wind gust probabilities, Sierra ridge gusts have a 60 to 80 percent probability of around 65 mph or greater. Currently, the forecast calls for Sierra ridge gusts ranging around 70 to 80 mph late Wednesday with some locations seeing a little over 90 mph possible, NWS forecasters said. With these expected winds and snow chances, hazardous traveling conditions in the Sierra ridge are expected due to the expected snow amounts as well potential blowing snow late Wednesday and going into early Thursday.
See the Winter Weather Advisory in effect on Wednesday and Thursday for Mono County and the Lake Tahoe Basin for more details.
There is also a Lake Wind Advisory in effect Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for the Pyramid Lake area with expected gusts up to 35 mph. By Thursday afternoon, precipitation chances look to taper off for most of the region though remaining around 10-20 percent within the Sierra portions through the rest of the day, forecasters said.
For Friday and the weekend, there is uncertainty as to the strength of the system as it approaches the region.
"Details on the impactful weather system within the area still remain rather uncertain though models do agree that precipitation chances will return once again for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with a surface low system moving south along the Pacific Coast before cutting across southern California on Saturday and Sunday," according to the NWS forecast discussion. "While there is good confidence of wraparound valley rain and mountain snow across the region during these days, the model forecast snow and (precipitation) totals have been fluctuating quite a bit lack of consensus in the low's track. Please continue to watch for forecast updates for the holiday weekend especially those with outdoor plans and events."
Precipitation chances look to taper off within the region by Monday with the possibility of warm, dry conditions next week, forecasters said. Check back for updates.
