Carson City area weather: Light showers possible then clearing into Christmas weekend
Sunshine with some cloud cover was a nice welcome to the first day of winter around the Carson City region Wednesday, and the holiday weekend should continue being clear on Friday into Sunday before another series of storm systems develop, according to the National Weather Service.
The weak storm system will bring chances for light rain and snow showers and increased winds in higher elevations Thursday evening into early Friday. Otherwise, dry and mild conditions will prevail through the Christmas holiday weekend. More active weather returns next week through the start of 2023, with potential for several storm systems bringing valley rain and mountain snow.
A weak weather system is expected to pass across Western Nevada Thursday night, bringing chances for light rain and snow showers mainly from US-50 northward. While snow levels look relatively high (6000-6500 feet rising to near 7000 feet by early AM Friday) for the Tahoe basin and Reno-Carson area, some of the valleys from about Susanville-Lovelock northward may remain cold enough for a light dusting of snow or a rain-snow mix.
There is also a slight possibility for rain to freeze on contact with ground surfaces and produce patchy icy conditions in parts of Pershing, northern Washoe and central-eastern Lassen counties through early Friday morning, with improving conditions after daybreak. Precip totals look to range from a trace to near 0.10", except up to 0.20" near the Oregon border and near the Sierra crest (translating to 1-2" snow above 7000 ft at the main passes).
For the remainder of Friday through Christmas weekend, a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over California and Nevada, allowing for temperatures in most areas to warm up to their warmest levels so far this month.
Highs on Christmas Day are projected to reach the lower 50s from Reno-Tahoe southward to Mineral and Mono county valleys.
For next week, medium range ensemble guidance is still in good agreement with the ridge breaking down in response to a series of Pacific storm systems accompanied by atmospheric river moisture. While a weak shortwave may bring light showers as soon as Monday, the first substantial storm is most likely to arrive Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing stronger winds especially for higher elevations and a push of deeper moisture. Compared to earlier December storms, the air mass will be warmer at onset with preliminary snow level projections starting in the 7500-8000 foot range.
A cold front passage brings snow levels down Tuesday night, but a changeover to snow is unlikely for most valley
floors, with projections roughly in the 5500-6000 foot range along the I-80 and US-50 corridors, around 6500 feet south of US-50, and 4500-5500 feet farther north as this storm winds down.
With an ample moisture tap and favorable forcing near/behind the front, precip should have little trouble spreading into far western NV within the Tuesday afternoon-night time frame. Our most likely scenario from Tuesday-Wednesday indicates around 1" rainfall for the main urban areas of western NV (dropping off substantially going eastward into west central NV), with 1-3" liquid amounts for northeast CA/Tahoe basin southward to Alpine and western Mono counties. Near the Sierra crest, liquid amounts could surpass 3" (translating to at least 2-3 feet of potential snowfall above 7500-8000 feet). These amounts could go in either direction, depending on the speed/duration of this storm and how much Pacific moisture is drawn in.
Beyond midweek, there is potential for additional storm systems reaching CA-NV as this year ends and into the first few days of 2023. They appear to be on the warmer side (at least through the end of 2022), but the focus point of the Pacific moisture feed may remain north of the Sierra for much of this time period.