Carson City area weather: Snow possible Thursday for lower valleys and Sierra
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Sun, 12/05/2021 - 10:25am
A cold storm will drop into the Carson City region Thursday, with snow levels crashing to all valley floors, according to the National Weather Service. Accumulating snow is highly likely, around a 70 percent chance, for all elevations of western Nevada and the Sierra, however there are still variations in the exact timing and totals.
Much colder conditions will follow with high temperatures anticipated to only be in the 30s on Friday and brisk northwest wind gusts of 15-25 mph making it feel even colder. Overnight lows Friday night will drop into the teens and single digits across the region, with below zero temperatures in the colder valleys, according to the weather service.
Travel disruptions are a good bet and may impact peak commuting times on Thursday. Keep tabs on the forecast through the week ahead and follow the latest analysis and trends by reading the Forecast Discussion here and below.
For Monday, a weak shortwave is projected to drop in from the north with this system splitting as it approaches. While we don't expect much precipitation overall, there are a number of ensemble members that indicate a possible small deformation zone setting up south of US-50 Monday evening into the late night, which could lead to some locations receiving about 0.10" of rainfall, with an inch or two of snowfall above 8000 feet in Mono and Alpine counties.
Any leftover showers in Mono-Mineral counties should end by early Tuesday morning with a decrease in cloud cover as this system departs to the south and a light east flow briefly sets up. The air mass doesn't really cool off much on Tuesday, with high temperatures in the lower-mid 50s, still about 5-10 degrees above average.
Wednesday through the weekend
A change in our stagnant weather pattern looks more promising by midweek through mid-month as our stubborn high pressure retrogrades west across the Pacific. This opens the door for colder low pressure systems to drop out of the northwest. The first of these systems arrives Thursday followed by a potential reinforcing wave early the following week.
As a result, a much colder pattern is anticipated as the first "inside slider" system drives a strong cold front through the area on Thursday. While this is not a pattern for storms that generate copious amounts of precipitation, the colder air could yield better potential for widespread snowfall for western Nevada and the Sierra.
The development of a trough across the western U.S. looks increasingly likely, but uncertainty remains in timing and strength of the slider trough. Thursday is the most likely day for the front and moisture to move through. As is typical with slider systems, the heaviest precipitation looks to be concentrated in a narrower band, and details for rates and placement should come into more focus 24-48 hours ahead of the event.
Due to the cold nature of the slider, snowfall will be possible both across the Sierra and western Nevada as snow levels plummet to all valley floors. While a major snow pickup is not likely, it still could be quite impactful with a couple of inches snowfall creating travel slowdowns regionwide. Higher end scenarios for snowfall look to be more localized and would require an ideal phasing of subtropical moisture and frontogenetical forcing.
Behind the front, temperatures will be much colder with drops of 15 to 20 degrees possible by Friday. This could result in western Nevada valleys remaining in the 30s during the afternoon. In addition, frigid temperatures are possible Friday night into early Saturday with teens and single digits possible for western Nevada and single digits to subzero temperatures in the Sierra.
Below average temperatures look to continue through next weekend ahead of another potential storm by early the following week. Main message for this week is to keep tabs on the forecast if you have travel plans beginning Thursday as snowfall impacts are becoming a possibility.
Check the latest forecast at weather.gov/Reno and check road conditions with Caltrans and NDOT. For Carson City area updates see CarsonWeather.com.
