Carson City area forecast: Warm days ahead this week, wet weather possible next week
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Sun, 11/28/2021 - 11:51am
Dry conditions will likely continue through the early part of December for the Carson City region and in the Sierra with the possibility of wet weather returning after Dec. 6, according to National Weather Service forecasters.
Strong high pressure over the region continues to keep the storm track diverted to the north without the possibility of precipitation. Temperatures will run well above average for this time of year with light winds. Temperatures Monday around Carson City will be in the upper 60 to near 70.
For the remainder of the week, daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid-60s. For the Lake Tahoe Basin, daytime temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s through the week.
Inversions and poor mixing may lead to some degradation of air quality, especially in urban areas, through the week ahead, according to NWS forecasters. There may be air degradation in the valleys due to inversions with very calm winds extending well beyond mountain ridges. These hazy conditions will continue to be most noticeable in populated areas like Carson City and Reno/Sparks.
The following is from the National Weather Service forecast discussion:
On Monday, a progressive low-amplitude shortwave will move through Oregon and Washington. While this will provide them with precipitation, it will result in very little impact to our weather. However, a slight uptick in the winds aloft will aid in afternoon mixing. This will help mitigate air quality concerns, but it'll also warm us up a little more. The result will be high temperatures flirting with daily records. Reno's record is 68 and South Lake Tahoe is 61, so keep an eye out for these to be tied or perhaps even broken.
Very little of substance to discuss as we head through the week. Unfortunately, winter activities will have to be postponed through at least next weekend - as nothing suggests an opportunity for a storm to sneak into the region. Mild temps will persist with cool mornings followed by a rapid climb to afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s.
While its still outside of the forecast period, signals remain more optimistic of a pattern change beginning in the Dec 7-10 time frame. Moisture fields look to have a more favorable trajectory towards our latitudes as indicated by a variety of ensemble and probabilistic guidance.
Nothing is a slam dunk just yet (this is far out in the world of weather forecasting)and simulations do not suggest anything spectacular like the late October event. Still, we'll take what we can get. Stay tuned as we wrap up this warm/dry November and look toward December for a change.
