Carson City area weather update: Mild and dry with storm potential Sunday into next week
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Wed, 11/23/2022 - 9:34am
Dry and mild conditions will extend from Thanksgiving Day through at least Saturday, with the potential for changes by Sunday into the middle of next week that could bring periods of wind, rain and snow, according to the National Weather Service.
The gradual warming will continue into Thursday with light and variable winds during the daytime hours for most Sierra and western Nevada locations before high pressure will once again to build back Thursday across the West Coast and bring a continuance of dry and mild conditions to the Sierra and western Nevada.
There may be some haze with slightly lower air quality lingering around more urban areas under strong valley inversions that persist through Thanksgiving day into Friday, NWS forecasters said. Temperatures will top a few degrees above average into the mid to high 50s for most locations at inversion level across the Sierra and most lower valleys of western Nevada.
Lows will stay on the chilly side, but still near seasonal averages in the teens and 20s depending on location and elevation.
The following is from Wednesday morning's forecaster discussion from the weather service. It will be updated at this link later Wednesday afternoon.
Saturday into early next week:
A low pressure system and amplifying upper trough will swing into the western US from the Gulf of Alaska and initiate a period of winter weather from Sunday into the middle of next week.
Increased chances for mountain snow and valley rain could start as soon as this Sunday night as increased forcing and instability push into the Sierra.
Pacific moisture will wrap into this system which looks to plunge southeast into the region towards the later part of the holiday weekend. Conditions will then transition to mostly snow by early next week as colder polar air and moisture pushes further east and south into the Sierra and western Nevada with subsequent northern Pacific storm systems. These systems will also bring periods of gusty winds with Sierra Crest seeing gusts pushing to near 90 mph early next week.
Ensemble guidance is aligning better with passage of the first cold front later Sunday into Monday morning that will bring periods of mountain snow and travel impacts over Sierra passes.
Simulations have also been trending a better picture of timing and precipitation amounts with the EPS-ENS showing a much colder system as compared to its GFS-ENS counterpart.
Blended guidance projects a 30-40 percent for 6 inches plus of new accumulating snow over Sierra passes and an inch or two for surrounding Sierra foothills. Snow levels will start off near 7,000 on Sunday but begin to drop overnight to 5,000 to 6,000 feet as moderate to heavy snow accumulates across the Sierra Crest. The area roadways for the Monday morning commute could see up to an inch of slushy snow as snow levels fluctuate above valley floors during the morning hours.
It is still too early to nail down timing and precipitation amounts for subsequent storms at this time. But rest assured an active period of winter conditions will continue through the middle of next week.
Check back for updates and go to NVroads.com for the latest road conditions.
