Carson City area weather: Wildfire smoke, breezy and a chance of rain, Sierra snow this week
Seasonal, dry conditions will continue over the next couple days, with a weather pattern change that appears likely midweek onward bringing afternoon breezes, increased clouds, valley rain, Sierra snow and a cooling trend, according to the National Weather Service.
Temperatures will remain mild, mostly in the 70s to low 80s, Monday and Tuesday with a weather system approaching the west coast Wednesday that will bring cooler temperatures and a chance for showers.
Smoke from the KNP Complex fire near Sequoia National Park will continue to impact the region through Tuesday as southerly flow ahead of the ejecting low will be favorable for smoke transport. As of 8 a.m. Monday morning the AQI was in the moderate range in Carson City, Carson Valley, Reno and around South Lake Tahoe.
Forecasters say projections show the worst smoke impacts will be in the eastern Sierra of Mono and Alpine counties and possibly into western Mineral and southern Lyon counties, while a more general haze spreads across most of Western Nevada, especially from I-80 southward. Increasing moisture and southwest flow will likely bring improvement Wednesday.
The following is the forecast discussion from NWS Reno, posted early Monday morning:
Winds will begin to pick up, primarily along the Sierra Front and across northeast CA/northwest NV. Finer scale models and ensembles show a gradual increase in speeds and gusts each afternoon through Wednesday. The primary concern will be today with a dry airmass still in place. While critical conditions will be localized this afternoon, wind gusts around 25 mph and RH down into the 10-15% range will bring an elevated concern.
Wind momentum and gradients increase a bit more Tuesday afternoon when gusts will be closer to 30 mph. However, minimum RH will be up about 5%, possibly a bit more for the Tahoe Basin northward, as moisture increases ahead of the ejecting upper low. Overall, critical fire weather conditions will not be widespread but the increase in winds could be a concern for fire fighting efforts where fire activity is ongoing.
Looking ahead Thursday and through the weekend, computer model ensembles show increased agreement for a splitting trough along the West Coast Thursday, but the timing and track of smaller-scale features remain uncertain. There are some indications that an impulse moving northeastward in the warm-sector of the trough could track across the Sierra, western Nevada, and northeast California on Thursday. This increases the potential for a rather cool and cloudy day Thursday, with scattered-to-numerous showers and some wetting rains (at least 0.10 inch) possible.
Then, as a jet streak associated with the southern branch of the split shifts northeastward, showers could continue at times Thursday night through Friday evening.
Snow levels could fall Friday morning to around 7,000 feet in northeast CA sloping to around 8,000 feet in Mono County, and then possibly around 1,000 ft lower than those levels Saturday morning. Anyone working or recreating in the higher mountains should prepare for a possible onset of winter conditions.
As the trough exits to the east, skies could partially clear out next weekend bringing potential for overnight freezes, even for areas that have not yet seen a fall freeze.
Precipitation chances may extend into next week. Check back for updates.