Carson City weekend weather: Hot but not overly excessive, thunderstorms and smoke possible
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Thu, 07/14/2022 - 4:37pm
Heading into the weekend, temperatures around the Carson City region and western Nevada will remain above average though not overly excessive Friday onward, National Weather Service forecasters say.
Otherwise afternoons will be breezy with chances of thunderstorms as well as the potential for drift smoke from the Washburn Fire in Yosemite.
Thunderstorm chances increase Friday, 15-30 percent, as a ridge continues to push more into western Nevada and the Sierra. If they do form, storms will initiate along the higher terrain of the central-southern Sierra and western Nevada as far north as Interstate 80 and east toward Austin.
The main weather hazard may be gusty and erratic winds to 50 mph, possible blowing dust, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Fire starts will once again be another concern, forecasters said.
As for winds, Friday, gusts of 20 mph to 30 mph are possible areawide, with stronger gusts across northeast California and northwestern Nevada. Temperatures will remain above normal but only a few degrees warmer than normal highs, forecasters said.
Highs across Sierra valleys are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 80s and upper 90s across the lower elevations.
Highs around the Carson City, Carson Valley and Dayton areas will be in the mid to upper 90s Friday through Sunday. For the Lake Tahoe Basin, daytime highs will be in the low 80s Friday through Sunday, according the weather service.
Meanwhile, the Washburn Fire in Yosemite National Park continues to eject smoke and haze into the low-mid atmosphere. Smoke will stay concentrated across northern Mono County, southern Alpine County, Douglas County, southern Lyon County, and western Mineral County Thursday overnight into Friday morning.
On Friday, smoke looks to be consolidated in these areas once again, with some of it pushing farther south to near Lee Vining. Degraded air quality as well as lofted smoke may create hazy conditions each afternoon as long as the fire continues to burn, forecasters noted.
See fire.airnow.gov for current air quality conditions in your area.
Below is the latest weather discussion from NWS forecasters. The discussion is updated twice daily. Go here for the latest updates.
Saturday onward
Main trend we're seeing in NBM and ensemble guidance is that dry southwest flow looks to be winning out from Tahoe-Reno northward limiting t-storm coverage. But "limiting" most definitely doesn't mean zero. Plenty of ECMWF ensemble members bring sufficient precipitable water northward and that coupled with zephyr or mountain convergence zones could certainly kick off some isolated storms each day from Reno-Tahoe-I-80 and northward. Probabilities from NBM suggest 5-15% each afternoon.
More consistent daily t-storm chances exist for the Eastern Sierra, Mineral Co, and as far north as the Pine Nuts in W Nevada. This is the area with higher confidence in sufficient moisture, heating, and instability each day. NBM guidance has roughly 20-30% thunderstorm POPs in these areas which makes sense given the nearly unanimous ECMWF ensemble precipitable water increases.
All impacts are on the table ranging from lightning and new fire starts to pockets of heavy rain and hail. Strong outflow winds are almost a guarantee with afternoon humidity in the teens yielding inverted-v soundings. Anyone with outdoor plans should be prepared for rapid changes in weather with t-storms. SW flow pattern would push any storms off the high Sierra crest to the NE, so there will be a tight gradient in POP from the west to east side of the Sierra.
Temperatures will remain warm, but not excessively so and within the margin of error for what we'd expect in mid-July. Saturday and Sunday are the hottest days of the long term with a good bet for near or just above 100 in many W Nevada locations and solid 80s for mountain communities. Typical zephyr breezes to 30 mph are projected each afternoon and early evening. This can serve as a trigger for isolated t-storms further north than current model guidance indicates, along with creating brief localized critical fire weather areas each afternoon.
