Rain ahead for Carson City region, high Sierra to see four or more feet of heavy, wet snow
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Tue, 03/20/2018 - 1:50pm
A strong storm from the Pacific known as an "atmospheric river" will push through the Sierra and Carson City regions Wednesday through early Friday, bringing periods of gusty winds, heavy valley rain and heavy Sierra snow, according to the National Weather Service.
At this time there have not been any warnings or watches for flooding potential issued for the Reno, Carson City, Carson Valley and western Nevada regions, however forecasters note the rain may produce some localized flooding from snow or debris covered street drainage.
The weather service advises this will be a rain event for western Nevada with moderate to heavy rain expected on Thursday with anywhere from 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of rain possible across western Nevada valleys.
Rises on small creeks and streams can be expected with some minor flooding possible in urban and poor drainage areas.
Minor flooding is also possible through the Sierra where snow has not been removed to allow for drainage. There could also be rises on small streams below 7,000 feet that drain into the Tahoe basin and on the east side of the Sierra. Although, main stem rivers do not look like an issue, rises are expected on all rivers.
The current forecast takes the Middle Fork of the Feather River in Portola to monitor stage, but at this point all other rivers are forecast to remain below the point of concern.
The weather service advises people to prepare for heavy rainfall by clearing drainages and gutters of debris and snow.
Timing of the storms begin Wednesday with initial light to moderate precipitation in the Sierra with the main period of heaviest precipitation to begin Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Moderate to heavy precipitation continues Thursday afternoon before quickly diminishing Thursday night.
As far as snow goes, overall the main moisture plume will be concentrated through the Sierra in Mono County where 2-4 feet of snow will be possible above mainly 8,000 feet with localized areas up to 6 feet along the crest in southern Mono County.
The Lake Tahoe Basin may see up to 2-3 feet mainly above 7,500 feet with localized areas up to 4 feet along the crest. Snow amounts below 7,500 feet are much lower confidence but generally 6-12 inches are possible down to 7,000 feet with a few inches possible down to lake level by Thursday night.
The break in the precipitation between the warmer and colder portions of the storms Friday morning is even more defined in latest model guidance, according to the weather service. Colder air moves into the region Friday as an upper trough digs into the region with a secondary cold frontal boundary shifting through the region Friday night.
This boundary will provide the forcing to develop snow across the area with the best chances in the Sierra, northeast California, and in western Nevada mainly north of Highway 50, according to the weather service.
This is a fast moving feature and there will only be a short period where the moisture and forcing align, so am not expecting significant snow accumulations.
However, with snow levels at all valley floors, even light accumulations may bring travel impacts across the region. A final passing shortwave could bring one more chance for light snow showers Saturday night.
Considering we are getting into the latter part of March, most road impacts from these lighter snows will be limited to the overnight and early morning hours, according to the weather service.
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