Carson City area weather: Dry though weekend, light snow possible late Sunday into Monday
Sunny, breezy and mild temperatures are expected for the Carson City and Lake Tahoe area into the weekend with the chance for gusty winds, precipitation, and cooler temperatures region-wide beginning late Sunday into Monday, Presidents' Day, according to the National Weather Service.
For the Carson City, Carson Valley region, daytime highs will be in the mid-50s Friday, low 60s on Saturday, high 50s on Sunday, with temperatures dropping Monday into the low 40s, according to the NWS forecast for the area.
In the Lake Tahoe Basin, daytime high temperatures will be in the mid-40s Friday, around 50 Saturday, mid-40s Sunday and 33 by Monday.
As of Thursday's forecast, there's a 20 percent chance of snow showers for the capital city area and the Lake Tahoe Basin on Sunday night.
Go here or read the NWS forecast discussion below.
Clear skies and light winds prevail across much of the region, except for some gusty easterly winds across the Sierra crest. These gusty winds will continue to die down through the early afternoon. High pressure off the West Coast will build poleward into the Pacific Northwest, resuming dry conditions and delivering a brief warm-up for the Sierra and western Nevada into early Sunday.
Temperatures will warm from the mid-40s into the lower-50s in Sierra valleys by Saturday, with western Nevada valleys warming from the lower-50s today to the lower-60s by Saturday.
The only "real" weather to speak of into Saturday will be the passing of a weak short-wave trough off the coast of California on Friday. This short-wave trough will bring mid-to-high level cloud cover over eastern California and western Nevada, with a marginal increase in east-southeast winds over the Sierra crest (25-35 mph). Attention turns to an inside slider moving into the region late Sunday.
Next week
After a relatively mild weekend, the eastern Sierra and western Nevada will start to see some changes on Sunday that will persist for much of the week. A trough is forecast to establish itself across the West, which will bring a cooling trend for the 6-10 day period. While it will be noticeably cooler with temperatures ranging from below normal to normal for the period, there are no signs for significant precipitation during this time. Any precipitation that arrives will originate from the north and be quick-hitting, cold, and a touch moisture-starved.
Speaking of cold and moisture-starved, another inside slider is on track to migrate through the region starting late Sunday. West to southwest winds will increase Sunday afternoon with the strongest winds aloft. Lower valley wind gusts may pick up into the 25-35 mph range. Sierra locations midday Sunday may respond to the west winds earlier with wind gusts up to 60 mph early in the afternoon.
The cold front associated with this low may pass through just before or during the Monday morning commute. Oh joy. GFS is showing the precipitation band hanging around the I-80 corridor through midday Monday with the potential for more bands of precipitation and showers to develop through the day. If the upper low remains overhead along with the northeast to east upslope flow, then some areas along the Sierra foothills and crest could see multiple rounds of snow showers through early Wednesday morning. The trough is projected to slowly exit across AZ and NM by Wednesday through Thursday, with shortwave ridging on it heels for the West.
Taking a glance at the 72-hour snow probs of at least an inch of snow for the region: metro locations in western Nevada are right around 45-50% chance, with around 65% chance for the Tahoe Basin and Sierra. Eastern Sierra and western Mineral county are also sitting around that 60% chance of at least 1 inch of snow from Monday and Tuesday.
Monday AM commuters: keep an eye on the forecast through the weekend. As higher resolution simulations become available, the timing and intensity of the projected precipitation bands will likely change. If you don't feel like checking back, then assume it will be a slower commute with some slick roads.
For road conditions, check NVroads.com or call 511. For Carson City area updates see CarsonWeather.com.