Carson City area weather: Gusty winds, valley snow possible, feet of snow in Sierra this week

A series of storm systems will move into the Carson City and Lake Tahoe region beginning late Monday bringing strong, gusty winds, chances of rain and snow to the valley floors and feet of snow in the Sierra by Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Moderate snow and very strong winds are likely for much of the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. A more powerful winter storm moves in Wednesday night through Thursday with even heavier snow and strong winds. A drier period is setting up the following week.

"We are watching and keeping an eye on the projective track on the Wednesday and Thursday storms," said Mark Deutschendorf, forecaster for the National Weather Service in Reno. "There are still a few days to keep an eye on projections, and chances for snow in the valleys. The mountains are still on track to receive a substantial amount of snow."

Meanwhile, a High Wind Watch is in effect from 10 p.m. Monday through noon Tuesday for the Greater Reno, Carson City, Carson Valley areas as well as Mono County. Southwest winds 25-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph possible. Gusts up to 75 mph possible along wind prone areas of US 395. Damaging winds could blow down trees, fences, and power lines. Power outages are possible. Travel could be hazardous for high-profile vehicles. Severe turbulence is also likely for aviation.

The Weather Service expects a moderate storm in the Sierra on Tuesday. Totals for the Lake Tahoe Basin will be around an inch of snow with up to 5 inches in the higher terrain and along the crest. This first wave washes out as it moves south with very little accumulation expected south of Highway 50 or into the valleys.

A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect with 2-5 inches possible for Sierra Valley and west of Susanville. Higher terrain could see 6-12 inches. There could be some travel impacts over Sierra passes and definitely for aviation in and around the Sierra.

Winds will be stronger with this wave, likely stronger than Saturday`s winds. A High Wind Watch has been issued; check back for potential upgrades to the forecast. Current gust estimates for western Nevada locations are in the 45-60 mph range late Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

Wind prone areas could see gusts to 80 mph and possible higher for some canyon openings in Mono County; definitely the strongest winds we've seen in a while. These winds will be a hazard to high profile vehicles and aviation interests.

Conditions improve Tuesday evening and overnight into early Wednesday morning. However, this break will be short-lived as the strongest wave of the week moves toward the region.

If you need to cross the Sierra, Wednesday is the day to do it, the weather service advises. Conditions are going to rapidly deteriorate Wednesday night into Thursday as a solid winter storm moves into the region. Winter storm watches have been added for the Sierra and northeast California where confidence is high in seeing major impacts.

A blended ensemble approach is yielding a high likelihood of feet of snow in the Sierra, with the highest numbers from Alpine County north, and up to a foot south of there, according to the weather service.

The other concern is the combination of strong winds and snow which may create blizzard conditions in the Sierra. Liquid totals have been trending down a bit for western Nevada, but are still high enough to bring the potential for decent snow accumulation along the Sierra front, with lesser amounts heading east toward the west central basin and range. While snow showers may linger in the Sierra through Friday morning, the bulk of the action will have ended by this point.

Winds are still looking strong and gusty Wednesday afternoon and night, but should begin to taper back with precipitation spilling over by Thursday morning. Sierra ridges, however, will remain elevated and there is the potential for stronger wind gusts to randomly mix down to the surface while heavier precipitation is ongoing.

At this point, gusts look like they could reach 40-50 mph in valley locations — stronger in wind prone areas — with over 100 mph likely across ridges. This means yet another round of travel impacts for high profile vehicles, choppy lake conditions, and turbulence and wind shear for aviation.

While a weak system may bring light snow showers to the Sierra and northeast California Saturday night into Sunday, overall, travel for MLK weekend does not look too bad. The longwave ensemble pattern would also suggest a warming and drying trend beyond the weekend with potentially limited mixing, according to the weather service.

For road information call 511 or go to NVRoads.com.